The NBA offseason is upon us, and I'm going to rank the top 50 players heading into next season. Here are a few things to take into consideration.
1) I am ranking for only the 2018-2019 season. One year potential is taken into consideration, but long term potential is basically ignored. Contracts are ignored as well.
2) I know the playoffs completely overshadow the regular season, but remember it is only a small part of the entire body of work. One playoff series is 4-7 games. The regular season in 82 games. Don't overreact to one four game stretch of bad or good performances.
3) I am using a combination of advanced and simple statistics. The three player-raters I use are BPM (Box Score Plus Minus) from basketball-reference.com, RPM (Real Plus Minus) from ESPN, and PIE (Player Impact Estimate from NBA.com.
I plan to update the rankings throughout summer and the regular season. In case you missed the previous rankings the links are below.
\40) Otto Porter / Forward / Washington Wizards / Age 25
77 GP / 14.7 PPG / 2.0 APG / 6.4 RPG / 1.5 SPG / 0.5 BPG
44.1% 3PT% / 50.1% FG% / 82.8% FT% / 60.2% TS%
3.6 BPM / 5.0 RPM / 12.4 PIE
Porter is one of the best three point shooters in the game and has continues to expand his game offensively. Won't get the volume playing with Wall and Beal but remains very efficient.
\39) Jayson Tatum / Forward / Boston Celtics / Age 20
80 GP / 13.9 PPG / 1.6 APG / 5.0 RPG / 1.0 SPG / 0.7 BPG
43.4% 3PT% / 47.5% FG% / 82.6% FT% / 58.6% TS%
1.0 BPM / 2.85 RPM / 10.8 PIE
Credit to Brad Stevens for putting Tatum in a position to succeed. His play on the defensive end was adequate, which was a huge surprise considering his pre-draft report. Showed true alpha status in the playoffs.
\38) Kristaps Porzingis / C / New York Knicks / Age 22
48 GP / 22.7 PPG / 1.2 APG / 6.6 RPG / 0.8 APG / 2.4 BPG
39.5% 3PT% / 43.9% FG% / 79.3% FT% / 53.9% TS%
-0.7 BPM / 2.35 RPM / 12.5 PIE
Injuries. Tough to rely on him taking another step forward coming off a torn ACL. Really improved defensively, was one of the best rim protectors before getting hurt.
\37) Steven Adams / C / Oklahoma City Thunder / Age 24
76 GP / 13.9 PPG / 1.2 APG / 9.0 RPG / 1.2 SPG / 1.2 BPG
0.0% 3PT% / 62.9% FG% / 55.9% FT% / 63.0% TS%
3.3 BPM / 1.53 RPM / 10.9 PIE
Nothing flashy, solid player. Not great offensively a lot of his points are off Westbrook dump offs, and put backs. Seems pretty close to reaching his ceiling.
\36) Kevin Love / PF/C / Cleveland Cavaliers / Age 29
59 GP / 17.6 PPG / 1.7 APG / 9.3 RPG / 0.7 SPG / 0.4 BPG
41.5% 3PT% / 45.8% FG% / 88.0% FT% / 61.4% TS%
1.3 BPM / 3.67 RPM / 15.0 PIE
Probably gets unfairly criticized for his playoff performances, unrealistic expectations playing next to LeBron. A sieve defensively, but a deadly shooter and provides much needed spacing offensively.
\35) Paul Millsap / PF / Denver Nuggets / 33
38 GP / 14.6 PPG / 2.8 APG / 6.4 RPG / 1.0 SPG / 1.2 BPG
34.5% 3PT% / 46.4% FG% / 69.6% FT% / 54.9% TS%
0.7 BPM / 1.54 RPM / 10.5 PIE
Unfortunately missed the beginning of the season due to injury, and never really got fully comfortable with his new team. I expect him to look much better with a full offseason, and improve the Nuggets defense dramatically.
\34) CJ McCollum / G / Portland Trailblazers / Age 26
81 GP / 21.4 PPG / 3.4 APG / 3.6 RPG / 1.0 SPG / 0.4 BPG
39.7 3PT% / 49.3% FG% / 83.6% FT% / 53.6% TS%
0.4 BPM / -0.31 RPM / 10.9 PIE
Part of his defensive struggles can be attributed to playing alongside Damian Lillard, and having to guard much bigger wings. Can score from all over offensively, might truly break out if the Blazers decide to break up him and Lillard.
\33) Khris Middleton / Wing / Milwaukee Bucks / Age 26
82 GP / 20.1 PPG / 4.0 APG / 5.2 RPG / 1.5 SPG / 0.3 BPG
35.9 3PT% / 46.6% FG% / 88.4% FT% / 57.7% TS%
0.4 BPM / 1.46 RPM / 11.4 PIE
Had a down year shooting and defensively (I attribute much of the blame towards Jason Kidd). Improved ball handling and passing. If he can bring his three point shooting back up to his career norms I expect a monster season.
\32) Gary Harris / Wing / Denver Nuggets / Age 23
67 GP / 17.5 PPG / 2.9 APG / 2.6 RPG / 1.8 SPG / 0.2 BPG
39.6% 3PT% / 48.5% FG% / 82.7% FT% / 59.7% TS%
0.9 BPM / 1.92 RPM / 9.8 PIE
Quietly has developed into one of top shooting guards in the NBA. Was sharing the floor with four poor defenders, but still stood out defensively. Might have been an all star if he was in the East last season.
\31) Donovan Mitchell / Guard / Utah Jazz / Age 21
79 GP / 20.5 PPG / 3.5 APG / 3.5 RPG / 1.5 SPG / 0.3 BPG
34% 3PT% / 43.7% FG% / 80.5% FT% / 54.1% TS%
3.6 BPM / 2.25 RPM / 10.9 PIE
Basically carried the Jazz offensively last season, maybe the only guy on the roster that could create his own shot. Efficiency wasn't great, but carried a heavy offensive burden. Becoming more judicious in his shot selection is the next step in his development.